How do you explain Trump's behavior
[no-lexicon] The case that very few thought possible has occurred. In the race for the White House, Donald Trump defeated the favorite Hillary Clinton. Investigation of the cause begins the day after the election. politik & kommunikation asked experts:
How do you explain Donald Trump's election victory and why did so few observers see him coming?
Hugo Müller-Vogg, publicist:
Photo: Laurence Chaperon
"In America, angry citizens became angry voters. Actually or supposedly stricken, middle-class members with fears of relegation and whites with worries about alleged foreign infiltration wanted to show it to 'those up there', that is, the elites in politics and the media Clinton's media has reinforced her protest stance. Trump has been underestimated by pollsters and the media alike. Trump bashing has certainly contributed to the fact that potential Trump voters have concealed their voting intentions in polls. Probably some institutes have theirs Data weighted in favor of Clinton - because what is not supposed to be. We know that from Germany: The AfD almost always scores significantly better in the state elections on election day than in most surveys. "
Andrea Steinert, Director of the Amerika Haus NRW:
Photo: Amerika Haus NRW
"In the past few weeks only the names Trump and Clinton have been mentioned in the media and in the debate. In the course of this personalization, we forgot that the American people were called to vote. It has been underestimated and far too little has been observed how Many voters support Donald Trump. He is the mouthpiece of a section of the population that has not been picked up enough by politics or by Hillary Clinton. In the polls, many people did not come out as Trump voters. With Brexit it was like this: Many Protest voters prefer to keep to themselves where they want to make their cross on election day. What do we learn from it? We have to pay much more attention to what moves people instead of just concentrating on the candidates in the election campaign. "
Ulrich von Alemann, Heinrich Heine University Düsseldorf:
"Certainly there are many reasons for the Trump election victory predicted by a few. The important ones are: The Trump voters were even more motivated to vote thanks to the tight polls of the last few days. The will to fight was stronger wishfull thinking in the game that they considered a Trump victory unthinkable. Some of the previous non-voters were probably in Trump last minute swing mobilized. Their behavior is particularly difficult to predict. After all, in polls, respondents may still have held back from professing Trump. "
Gerrit Richter, CEO Civey:
Photo: Götz Schleser
"The proportion of people who no longer feel represented by the current political system is evidently much larger than expected. On the left-liberal side, the desire for 'change' was already evident in the 2008 election of Obama and also in the respect it enjoyed of the outsider Bernie Sanders. On election day in the US he came from the opposite end of the political spectrum. That this development was not foreseen is also a failure of conventional opinion research, which - just like with Brexit - certain sections of the population are no longer in theirs Models or not achieved in surveys. Incidentally, the data from our own surveys also show that the proportion of dissatisfied in Germany is similar to that in the US. The election of Trump may be shocking, but the people who vote for a candidate like him would not only exist in the US. "
Jacqueline Schäfer, President of the Association of Speechwriters German Language (VRdS):
"The White House astrologers on both sides of the Atlantic have almost all failed completely. Trump, the outsider who violated all the rules of political and diplomatic communication and, unlike Ronald Reagan at the time, had no political experience, did not fit into that It couldn't be what shouldn't be. The 'political clown' was not taken seriously. At the same time, it was overlooked that he knew how to formulate the needs of a large part of the rural population: with simple words and a habitus of independence. There was someone who did not belong to the establishment, who formulated hope and supposedly listened. Clinton's great political experience could not help her: It was equated with the political system that has obviously gambled away the trust of large parts of society. But the political watchers have exactly overlooked this and declared her the winner far too early - the wah The outcome is the result of an inadequate culture of debate, which always serves to listen carefully and to respond empathetically to the other person. Not just on panels, not just in front of television cameras, but whenever you meet people. Everywhere and everytime. Germany should learn from the US election. "[/ No-lexicon]
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