Meteorologists questioned the reality of achieving the objectives of the Paris agreement over the next five years

The average annual temperature within the next five years (2020 to 2024) to be 0.91-1.59 Celsius higher than in pre-industrial period. Global climate change will also impact on the strengthening of winds over the Atlantic, which will lead to frequent occurrence of storms on the coast of Western Europe. Thus at high latitudes will fall, more precipitation and Northern and Eastern South America will become even drier. According to the report of the world meteorological organization, the objectives of the Paris climate agreement in the next five years is almost impossible.

In 2015, over 180 countries have ratified the Paris agreement. This document replaced the Kyoto Protocol and contains goals and objectives to reduce the pace of anthropogenic climate change. The main purpose of the agreement is to hold the average temperature at no more than two degrees Celsius higher than in pre-industrial times. A more ambitious goal of limiting the increase to 1.5 degrees Celsius. The Paris agreement came into effect in 2020.

The world meteorological organization has published an annual report, which voiced the climate forecast for the years 2020-2024 and compared several climate figures of the current year with average values of recent decades and pre-industrial era. A leading center prediction was made by climate Bureau of the UK, joined by research groups from Spain, Germany, Canada, China, USA, Japan, Australia, Sweden, Norway and Denmark.

According to the report, in 2020 the land in the Northern hemisphere is warmed up by 0.8 degrees greater than the average for the period 1981-2010, and the Arctic will warm up twice as strong compared to the world average values. Many areas of South America, southern Africa and Australia, it is likely that this year will be drier than in the recent past.

The probability that the average temperature over the 2020-2024 will rise by more than 1.5 degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial levels, is extremely low (not more than three percent). However, the probability that the temperature during one or several months in the next five years will exceed this level amounts to about 70 percent. In General, scholars hold the assumption that each of the succeeding five years show an excess at the level of 0.91-1.59 Celsius.

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