Scientists have successfully reproduced aspects of the theory of prospects

Scientists were able to reproduce the results of one of the most influential works in the field of behavioral Economics — the original article about the theory of perspectives, written by Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky in 1979. To reproduce, the scientists repeatedly increased the sample, while also adapted the original surveys for 19 countries. On average, were able to reproduce 94% of the results and to confirm 12 of the 13 examined in the original work of the manifestations of the behavioral effects, write the scientists in the Nature of Human Behaviour.

One of the most influential theories in behavioral Economics, prospect theory argues that when making decisions in a situation of possible risk the person relies on its own subjective judgments about the usefulness in the evaluation of winnings and losses and never behaves rationally — contrary to the predictions of classical economic theory. Detailed prospect theory described in the article, Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky published in 1979: it is related to the theory effects (e.g. effect of confidence) scientists also tested experimentally.

Despite the fact that prospect theory since the early 1980s, not only widely used in psychology and behavioral Economics, but takes into account classic economic theory (in 2002, Kahneman even won the Nobel prize in Economics) in the original study still has some limitations. Each of 20 tasks, divided into 13 oppositions election that scientists have developed to test his theory, decided less than a hundred people, besides they were all students (though from different countries: Israel, USA and Sweden).

Of course, the theory of perspectives, not just the experimentally tested in numerous studies, but the playback results are the original work of Kahneman and Tversky is still almost no one did — especially on a bigger sample. To do this it was decided by scientists under the leadership of Thomas Folke (Tomas Folke) from Columbia University: they adapted the tasks from the original work of Kahneman and Tversky for 4098 inhabitants 19 countries and translated them into 13 languages respondents. The number of jobs was reduced from 20 to 17, but they also covered all 13 of the assumptions.

For example, to check the effect of confidence, according to which option one hundred percent probability probability preferable to the other options, the researchers used the following example from the original work:

What would you choose?

Option one: have 2400. E. with a probability of 66 percent to 2,500 with probability 33% or nothing with a probability of 1 percent.

Option two: to immediately have 2400. E.

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