Using the new demographic models, researchers have shown seven different migration scenarios for the European Union and showed the most effective of them. It appeared to be a script that combines the migration policies of Canada and Sweden — involving a large volume of well-educated and able-bodied migrants. This option will help gently solve the problem of the ageing of the European population. On the other hand, a large amount of migrants and can give the opposite effect, if workers are to have a bad education and won’t be able to go through the process of integration, write the scientists in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
The population of the world is steadily ageing. The decrease in fertility and increase in life expectancy increase the average age, and hence increase the share of the elderly population in the total number of inhabitants of most countries of the world. First and foremost, it negatively affects the economy — the share of the working population is rapidly declining against the backdrop of increasing number of pensioners. According to estimates by the UN, by 2050 every sixth person on the planet will be older than 65 years (16% of the population the intended population), compared with every 11th planet in 2019 (9% of the population). In 2018 the number of people over 65 years of age for the first time in history exceeded the total number of children under the age of five years on the planet.
The most acute problem of population ageing is in developed countries (primarily in Europe) — there is this process started much earlier than in developing States, though they are now actively catching up. In the same 2050 age every fourth inhabitant of the North America and Europe will be above 65 years. In addition, in most developed countries record natural population decline. The solution to these demographic problems is possible only through a range of economic, technological and social measures. Not the last role in the suppression of demographic aging is the migration policy.
The output of the acclaimed UN report of 2001, entitled “Replacement migration: is it a solution to the problem of declining numbers and aging population?” was the reason for the occurrence of many public and scholarly debate. Under the replacement migration scientists understand migration gain, which compensates for the decrease in fertility or other quantitative characteristics of societies, such as the number of working people or the proportion of elderly in society. The report authors expect the extent of replacement migration and its impact on the number and age structure of the population of eight countries (including Japan, America, Germany, Italy and) and two regions (Europe and EU). They are all similar in one thing — the birth rate in these countries and regions have not reached the level of population reproduction. The report considers five scenarios relating to international migration flows and it is shown that the number of migrants needed to maintain population, much higher than the previous forecasts.
A group of scientists, led by Guillaume Marois (Guillaume Marois) of the International Institute for applied systems analysis, proposed a new model of analysis of demographic replacement in Europe. According to the authors, the UN projections too roughly describe reality — considering only the age of each person, experts divide the entire population into two groups: able (from 15 to 65 years) and unable (others) to work people. Group Maroua, went the other way — their model is based on 13 indicators (in addition to age is, for example, the education level of the migrant and his mother, duration of stay in the country and its belonging to the working population).