The researchers numerically evaluated the results of measures taken in
Wuhan to contain the epidemic, after 50 days from the time of detection of the first
According to their calculations, published in Science (article is in open access), the closure of cities and the measures
to reduce contacts between people, led to lower
the number of infected outside of Hubei province at 96 per cent and prevent
hundreds of thousands of infections in China.
Despite the increase in the incidence of the virus SARS-CoV-2 worldwide, the effectiveness of restrictive measures for
infection that are some States, while
obvious. Although there are a number of mathematical models that predict
the course of events in response to certain events, for more accurate predictions COVID is not enough real
Scientists from Beijing normal University in
collaboration with colleagues from several U.S. and Chinese research centers appreciated
the effects of banning trips and forced social distancing in the
China after 50 days since the beginning of the epidemic in the period from 31 December
2019 February 19, 2020.
At the end of December 2019 in Wuhan, which is
the largest transportation hub in Central China, recorded a number of cases
pneumonia caused by an unknown pathogen, which is later
identified as a coronavirus infection related SARS (SARS-CoV-2).
The outbreak came in the period before the festive holidays in honor
Chinese New year and Spring festival, during which usually
committed to three billion movement between cities.
To prevent the spread of infections January 23, authorities
banned the entry and exit of Wuhan, and the next day shut down the entire province
Hubei, where the city. In addition, the Chinese government awarded the situation
the highest degree of the dangers and to take appropriate restrictive measures,
including the restriction of public transport, closing schools and
entertainment centers, a ban on public gatherings, and isolation of all
coronavirus infection of patients and people suspected to have it.