The world population will continue to grow until 2064, and then begin to decline due to the spread of female education and available contraception. This is the conclusion reached by researchers after analyzing data on fertility of women in 195 countries. They estimate that by 2100 the planet will live approximately 8.8 billion people, a billion more than today. The forecast, published in the journal The Lancet, is at odds with many previous estimates, which predict the planet’s population growth to 12 billion people.
On the earth today lives around 7.8 billion people and, most likely, the line of eight billion will be overcome in the coming years. But the certainty about the more distant future the specialists there. Meanwhile, an accurate forecast of the population of individual countries and the planet as a whole is very important from the point of view of politics, economy, environmental protection and many other industries.
A team of researchers led by Christopher Murray (Christopher Murray) from the University of Washington decided to build our own demographic model describing the population growth up to 2100. In based on data on cohort fertility: this indicator reflects the average number of children born by the women group of women to a certain age. In this case, the authors found the mark for 50 years.
Usually in the demographic models used, the birth rate i.e. the average number of children born to each woman. However, the authors believe that the cohort fertility allows to make the forecast more accurate. In addition, they have slightly changed the traditional approach to rating migrations.
According to the calculations, the population growth of the Earth will be around until 2064. At the time of the peak on the planet will live 9.7 billion people. But then the trend reverse and by 2100 the population will drop to 8.8 billion. At the end of the century in 183 out of 195 countries surveyed will be born fewer children than is necessary for reproduction.
The population of some countries is declining today. According to the authors, in the future this trend will continue. For example, in 20 countries by the end of the century will live twice less people than today. Among them Japan, Italy, Spain, Thailand and South Korea. As for, it is the researchers predicted a drawdown of up to 106 million people.
With the decline in population may face even countries that today suffer from overpopulation. For example, the number of people in China by the end of the century could fall below billion to 732 million people. Reproduction is also reduced in sub-Saharan Africa today where population growth rates are among the highest in the world.
The main factors that will reduce the human population, the authors call the spread of education among women, as well as the massive use of contraceptives. A role to play and an aging population: the proportion of people over 80 years of age in the second half of the XXI century will increase by six times.
The new forecast looks more optimistic than many current estimates that by the end of the century the Earth will live for about 12 billion people. However, researchers warn that current political and economic system is not too well suited to work in a declining and rapidly aging population. This is the reason for the development of new approaches, primarily in health care.
The EU today faces the problem of an aging population. Sociologists have proposed to use for its solution approach, which is practiced by Canada and Sweden to attract a lot of educated and able-bodied migrants.