Which is worse? Compare flu and COVID-19 in Italy

There is a position that can be reduced to the thesis in the spirit of “coronavirus — it’s just a flu, in 2017 from him, too many people died” and “people die all the time, nothing has changed, it infogami”.

And although she seems not particularly popular among the decision makers, there are people whom she is close: for example, the President of Brazil Jair Bolsonaro continues to deny the seriousness of the coronavirus and the need for social distancing. Something similar is happening in Belarus.

We don’t know what motivates presidents of different countries, but we encountered the argument in favor of this position was based on an analysis of mortality statistics in Italy. Now the national Institute of statistics of Italy (Istat) released new data on mortality in Italy in January-March 2020, and we have a chance to perform and, finally, to answer the question, how significantly increased mortality in the country — or we anxiously watched the numbers whose meaning is still not understood.

Where there were reasons to think otherwise

The belief that the example of Italy is not a reason for concern, relied on two main sources: site data Euromomo and article with statistics on winter epidemics of influenza 2013-2017 years.

Euromomo is an aggregation of mortality data in Europe. Quite often data comes with a delay and adjusted within a few weeks. If data are missing, the site displays the forecast. This means that data in recent weeks can not be trusted.

It looked like a graph Italy 3 April:

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.